How about those reserves annalists are talking about? Am I out of a job in 5 or 10 years?

It is the topic many people talk about, the question of how much oil remains before we start running out. This question becomes challenging to answer, when we want to be accurate. 30 years ago, the estimate was that we would be running out of oil by now. So far it seems that we are still able to go to the gas station and stop for some gas to fill up our car. They were wrong, but how wrong were they?

Founder of Association for the Study of Peak Oil (ASPO), Dr Colin Cambell said the following: "Understanding depletion is simple. Think of an Irish pub. The glass starts full and ends empty. There are only so many more drinks to closing time. It’s the same with oil. We have to find the bar before we can drink what’s in it.”

Another issue is the peaking point- when we will reach the peak of our production capabilities to pump conventional, easy accessible oil out of the ground.

In general Oil reserves are estimated into three different groups:
Proven reserves:
•probable reserves
•possible reserves
The proven reserves are the most reliable and seem to be correct in the range of 90-95%. The probable reserves are less accurate, of course, and should be in the order of 45-50%. The possible reserves are a complete guess and are in the low percentiles. Map of oil reserves in the world

For every 100% of oil we use at the moment we only discover 25% new oil. This clearly shows that current prices are not too high at all. The general expectation is that oil prices will go up more because oil is for the world what water is for us- essential and unable to live without. From our cars to the clothing we wear, we need oil to fabricate it.

No need for panic but certainly time to start acting upon it. The world needs to over think how we are going to deal with this before we run into problems. Efficient use of our energy sources, sustainability and innovation are important subjects from today on.

For now the reserves seem to supply us at least the next two decades with enough oil to keep our economies growing. For sure the oil will not be gone; the only thing that might have changed by then is the level on how much we depend on oil. Innovations that make it possible to run cars on other types of fuels will maybe be up and running by that time.

At the moment about two third of the oil is used for transportation, the rest is used for to lubricate machinery large and small, such as bicycles or printing presses, to make the asphalt we use to pave our roads, to make plastics, such as the toys we play with and the portable radios or CD players we listen to and also to make medicines, ink, fertilizers, pesticides, paints, varnishes etc. Many things are made out of oil, meaning you won’t be out of a job!